UKIP heads for victory in Rochester/Strood by-election. UK political fun.


news update

What’s the latest?

Not really news about the Rochester predicted victory for the ‘kippers. I have mentioned this a few times in comments, but the day of voting approaches so I thought I’d add a post for suitable comments and news as it occurs. It seems that the local Tories have got so desperate about the upcoming defeat that they have started some negative campaigning about the guy that used to be the local Tory MP (their own guy just a few months ago). This might sound odd to some colonial types, but we don’t do that kind of campaigning very often. The ‘Demon eyes’ campaign against Bliar backfired on the tories.  With complaints to the ASA (Advertising Standards Authority).  Ironic now that many would like to see the guy on trial for war crimes for lying us into a war in Iraq. Reckless is more popular with the same electorate as a ‘kipper than he was as a tory. Labour’s vote has sunk despite them holding the seat (slightly changed boundaries) not very long ago.  Check out this page for a laugh.  Labour activist predicts labour victory in Rochester only six weeks ago. Current odds are here.  Using the bet365 numbers we have:

  • Ukip 1/33 (so a dead cert)
  • Tories 11/1
  • Labour 66/1

All this about a by-election that Dave Cameron said was different from Clacton

But Rochester (Tory majority 10,000) is different. Cameron has raised the stakes spectacularly publicly and privately by insisting that he will personally lead the charge against “fat arse” Mark Reckless who has followed his friend Carswell and switched to Ukip.
http://conservativewoman.co.uk/nick-wood-can-rochester-election-prove-daves-rorkes-drift/

Oops.

To lose one by-election may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose two looks like carelessness

h/t Oscar Wilde


old style copperspng

Old style British coppering in action

Perhaps concerned that things aren’t looking bad enough for them, yesterday the tory Home Secretary (Teresa ‘I wanna be the next leader’ May) manages to make a complete balls up of a vote over the European Arrest Warrant.  Using slimy tactics to deny our Parliament a vote on a fundamental aspect of how out justice system is going to be run.  A vote that the tories would have won anyway because labour would have voted with the tories.  In order to avoid a vote that would have shown a large number of tory mps revolting, but would have been won.  She managed to look slippery and dishonest.

The Speaker, John Bercow, suggested the government’s attempts to avoid a vote on the issue – and therefore a backbench rebellion – would be regarded by the public as contemptuous, while Tory MPs called the decision underhand and tyrannical. Labour then called a vote on whether the entire debate should be abandoned, which provoked panic among Tory whips. Senior Tories, including David Cameron, were forced to rush back from the Lord Mayor’s dinner wearing white tie, while supportive backbenchers engaged in a US-style filibuster in the Commons to ensure the government was not defeated. After narrowly winning that vote, the government won the overall motion in favour of the EU justice and home affairs measures with only 36 MPs rebelling. But there are now likely to be recriminations within the Conservatives about how home secretary Theresa May and chief whip Michael Gove allowed such confusion and panic over what was only ever likely to be a minor backbench rebellion. http://www.theguardian.com/law/2014/nov/10/european-arrest-warrest-u-turn-vote-commons-chaos

Just to rub salt in the wound help their best-est tory buddies, the labour party has decided to allow a full debate on the issue next week on their time…the day before the Rochester by-election.  Even while regarding them as opportunistic canutes, I can’t help laughing.  Scumbag politics all around, just what was needed to highlight the issue with the disconnected political class. And another link from the right wing (INO) press, The Telegraph – Labour to trigger new vote on European Arrest Warrant as fallout from chaotic Commons debate deepens And again The Telegraph – A Commons shambles that fuels public distrust


All of this fuels UKIP’s being seen as a viable protest vote.  The effect of this?  Well, BOTH main parties are regarded as less likely to form a majority government in May 2015

Another hung parliament is looking even more likely The two charts above represent betting developments that have never happened before. Both the chances of a CON and a LAB majority at GE15 on the betting exchange have moved to new lows together. This is a odd phenomenon. Normally if the blues collapse then the reds soar and vice versa. Now, with less than six months to go, both appear to have deep problems which will make it harder to put up convincing cases to the electorate next May. With LAB it’s the continued angst about the leadership while amongst the Tories it is the opening up yet again of the European fault line that has been so corrosive for nearly a quarter of a century.

Interesting times ahead…

Tories and Labour looking good

Tories and Labour looking good

Don’t ask me which is which. Neither has any appeal.

Update. UKIP releases a video over the Tory truth telling over Europe

Another update.  This guy identifies the issues that the political class has, but misses in his conclusions, I believe (the commentariat is with me)

The established parties don’t get it. Ukip is a state of mind not a clutch of policies

The truth is that the motivations of Ukip voters exist in the blind spot of modern politics.  No easy portrait of an average ‘Kipper’ can be drawn.  It is the ability of the current mood to unite seemingly disparate groups in support of Ukip that has the established political class perplexed.  No matter how many graphs, tables and polls are produced by policy wonks, no empirically verifiable link or connection will become apparent.  No amount of ‘evidence-led policy’ will tell you what brings a retired lieutenant colonel in Wiltshire into the same political tent as a white, unemployed, single mother in Clacton.  Without such a diagnosis, formulating a strategy to stop Nigel Farage is virtually impossible.

The professional political class’s blind spot is a methodological one.  Since the mid-nineties, Westminster has refused to acknowledge the existence of any trend or occurrence that cannot be quantified or viewed through the quasi-scientific lens of professional politics.  The result is a perspective as sterile and empty as the philosophical position that denies there is truth to be found in Shakespeare because such truth is not susceptible to objective measurement. Deploying this methodology in frontline politics produces a damaging reductionism.  If a policy wonk is confronted with the fact that people are reporting their home town “no longer feels like home” or “feels like a foreign country”, these responses are immediately misread and pigeon-holed as concerns about ‘immigration’.  Condemnation of such perceived attitudes usually follows.

What is missed is that such remarks often have very little to do with immigration or racism.  To get this, we must accept that most people, most of the time, are good and decent.  Ukip cannot run on xenophobia alone.  Instead, such comments are better understood as a lament for a lost sense of belonging.  It is this that unites the retired colonel with Clacton woman.  Both come from social groups that began the 20th Century with the clearest sense of identity and standing in the social order.  Both have now lost this.  In these groups, community identity and social standards were unambiguous.  Members of both groups could take pride in what they did and who they were; they were frequently the most engaged and active members of our nation and society.

I don’t agree with “better understood as a lament for a lost sense of belonging.”.  I think it’s a realisation that things were better before.  Now is worse.  Things of value have been lost and nothing of great value won.  Multi-culti does not work, it is not better than that which it replaced.  And that is not a xenophobic statement, it’s the statement of a legitimate point of view.  Lying about it (as the liblabcon does) or labelling it xenophobic (as the liblabcon does) is no longer working.  UKIP’s progress shows that.

The comments are well worth reading, they draw the better conclusions than the original material.

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Posted in Politics, UK, UKIP
72 comments on “UKIP heads for victory in Rochester/Strood by-election. UK political fun.
  1. Moehau Man says:

    Labour 66/1 eh? Might be worth a $0.50c punt.

    Like

  2. Spawny Get says:

    I’ve never seen it spelled with a ‘p’ before. ‘Punt’ you say?

    Is it just me, or does the one on the left in the monster pick look a bit like Liam Neeson?

    Not a sad sunflower in sight in any of the images though. Forgive me?

    Like

  3. Cill says:

    I never knew Rorke’s Drift was made into a movie! Probably way before my time. I must keep my eye out for the DVD. Was it a great movie? It should be.

    Like

  4. Spawny Get says:

    No Cill. Norke’s drift is what happens when a lady’s bra is poorly fitted.

    You mean Rorke’s Drift
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-16948284

    Fantastic film. I bought da Blu-Ray recently.

    Like

  5. Moehau Man says:

    Last check, Labour had gone out to 80/1

    “Well, BOTH main parties are regarded as less likely to form a majority government in May 2015”
    Par for the course Down Under. We have MMP in Godzone.

    “Not a sad sunflower in sight in any of the images”
    Well Cill’s the one who takes exception to the sunflower. I’m somewhat more sanguine on the subject. A sunflower might add some much-needed color to the picture, actually.

    Like

  6. Cill says:

    I said Rorke’s Drift” Spawny! Stop putting Norkes into my mouth!

    Like

  7. Cill says:

    … I know you think I’m hanging upside down, but there are limits

    Like

  8. Spawny Get says:

    I am tempted to add red and blue (sunflower) rosettes to the Odd-Bodds, or maybe blue and red ones.

    Like

  9. Spawny Get says:

    “Stop putting Norkes into my mouth!”

    All the cool babes are doing it. What a shame that the rest of the world don’t have norks and so don’t know what we’re talking about.

    Like

  10. Spawny Get says:

    p.s. How did we get on to norks, I mean Rorke’s Drift in the first place?

    Like

  11. Moehau Man says:

    A Moehau Man certainly does know what a Norke is. It’s got a thing on the end of it that you hang onto during an earthquake. I thought everyone knew that. You foreign jokers, I don’t know…

    Like

  12. Cill says:

    “How did we get on to norks, I mean Rorke’s Drift in the first place?” :

    http://conservativewoman.co.uk/nick-wood-can-rochester-election-prove-daves-rorkes-drift/

    Like

  13. Cill says:

    On topic, I just love to see UKIP kicking ass. How is this all going to end up though? Could they turn out to be the tail that wags the dog, as happens down here with our MMP? (i.e. hold the balance of power)

    Like

  14. Cill says:

    Actually if you’re not there on the ground the reporting can be confusing “The opinion polls have all pointed to a Ukip win in Clacton”. I thought Clacton was done and dusted?

    Like

  15. Moehau Man says:

    Cameron’s “markedly Tory rhetoric and policy pledges, not least over cutting taxes, curbing welfare and controlling immigration, combined to give him a bounce in the national opinion polls, putting him ahead of Labour for the first time in more than two years.”

    Man, you foreigners can be gullible. Cameron keep one of them promises?
    Let me read that again: “cutting taxes, curbing welfare and controlling immigration“…

    Heh heh heh…

    Yeah…

    Heh heh heh…

    Like

  16. Spawny Get says:

    Clacton was the first by-election – Won by Carswell.

    Camermong declared that Rochester (the second by-election) was the real test. At the time he might have had a point, however the tories done gone fucked it up. They will lose that too.

    Like

  17. Moehau Man says:

    Feminism is Dave’s Isandlwana. It’s as obvious as the nob on the end of a Nork, looking at it from Down Under. It puzzles me that you foreign geezers can’t see it too. Let me spell it out for you’all again:
    Feminism is Dave’s Armageddon

    Like

  18. Moehau Man says:

    Heh heh heh…

    “nob on the end of a Nork”
    Pretty good metaphor, that.

    Heh heh heh…

    Ah dear I haven’t laughed so much since Mrs Moehau Man (my hoary old mum) caught her chest hair in the laundry wringer…

    Like

  19. Spawny Get says:

    “markedly Tory rhetoric and policy pledges”

    Avast ye furry foreigner!

    Dave delivered tons of rhetoric and pledges. Now all will admit that that’s all Call-me-Dave has delivered. (But then I never believed him)

    His greatest asset, and it’s ‘kin huge, is Ed Milli-bland. (‘leader’ of the labia party). Dave has been worried lately that labour might get rid of him. Or Ed might do the decent thing and put the party ahead of himself…like lefties are renowned for that kind of malarkey.

    Like

  20. Spawny Get says:

    “Feminism is Dave’s Armageddon”

    Well, one of the nails in Dave’s Rochester coffin is that in a full and fair ‘open’ primary, Dave gave the locals a free and fair choice of who would stand for them, as long as they chose either of the two women candidates allowed. The turn-out for that election of their candidate for the by-election was poor.

    Like

  21. Spawny Get says:

    The bonnie prince here dunarf look like Dave…Spoiler alert – he lost.

    Like

  22. Moehau Man says:

    “Feminism is Bonnie Prince Dave’s Culloden”, then.

    Like

  23. Padawan says:

    Speed bonnie vote like a bird on the wing>>>

    Like

  24. Moehau Man says:

    labia party
    Norks
    nobs on the ends of Norks
    images of Cill upside down getting a hanging Nork in his mouth like a smack in the face…

    You gotta admit, this all has a ring of Feminism about it. Nay, it absolutely smacks of Feminism

    Like

  25. Padawan says:

    “Norke’s drift is what happens when a lady’s bra is poorly fitted.”

    Feminism Nork is
    Nob is Dave, it is.

    What did the nob to the Nork say?
    My head over the parapet stop pushing.

    Like

  26. Cill says:

    Just looking at http://conservativewoman.co.uk/kathy-gyngell-labours-real-problem-ed-sanctimonious-feminists-alienated-working-class-vote/

    … Fem is a disaster for Labour too.

    “But, a new form of social democracy suited to tough times will only work if freed from the economically, socially and psychologically stultifying Marxist feminism that has taken over the party.”

    Substitute “western world” for “party” and you got it.

    Like

  27. FuzzieWuzzie says:

    Cill,
    You don’t have to leave the house. This is Michael Caine’s first film.

    Like

  28. Yoda says:

    The bonnie prince here dunarf look like Dave…Spoiler alert – he lost.

    Dressed as a women he did.

    Like

  29. Cill says:

    Wow thanks Fuzzie!

    Under-swell: But wait for the Fems to fight back. Another Hermione, perhaps? It’ll work! (just think of the fool MRM) . This will be a long battle with many ups and downs. A touchy-feely take-over attempt on MRM is my prediction. It might even work on MRM but it won’t on the real MGTOW

    Like

  30. Yoda says:

    Nork he is,

    Like

  31. Padawan says:

    “Dressed as a women he did.”

    With every promise that Bonnie Dave swears
    We all know, a t-shirt he underneath wears.

    Like

  32. FuzzieWuzzie says:

    It’s Vtern’s Day here, Rememberance Day in Canada, and Armistitice Day in France.
    Here’s something martial.

    Like

  33. Spawny Get says:

    Nork
    From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Nork or NORK may refer to:
    Look up nork in Wiktionary, the free dictionary.
    Placenames

    Nork, Yerevan, Armenia
    Nork, Surrey, England

    Racial Groups

    A portmanteau for North Koreans

    hmmm so much for wikipedia. Howabout teh urban dictionary?

    2
    Norks
    Breasts. Australian slang. Derived from the prominent udders on the cow used to advertise Norco, New South Wales’ North Coast Dairy Co-Operative.
    Crikey! Check out the norks on that shiela!

    ahhh much bliss.

    Like

  34. FuzzieWuzzie says:

    Cill,
    Do you think the Fembots will cozy up to the Men’s Rights guys and turn all sweet on them? It is amusing to contemplate.

    Like

  35. Cill says:

    We have Remembrance Day here too.
    However our biggest day is ANZAC, remembering Gallipoli WW1
    I respect today for Veterans, Remembrance, Armistice

    Like

  36. Cill says:

    Spawny thanks for that explanation re Norks. The only one I knew was #2

    Like

  37. Cill says:

    Fuzzy, yep! The fems will pop ’em the lolly and it will be like ashes in our mouth!
    (Note our mouth. We won’t fall for it but MRM might suck it up, wouldn’t surprise me).

    Like

  38. Cill says:

    Which post did we discuss the MRM blundering attempt to absorb (and thereby castrate) MGTOW? Obviously Hermione wasn’t the only reason for that, but IMHO it was a part of it.

    Like

  39. Spawny Get says:

    “Spawny thanks for that explanation re Norks. The only one I knew was #2”

    yeah, right! This worked surprisingly suspiciously well then…if you were innocent

    “Stop putting Norkes into my mouth!”

    All the cool babes are doing it. What a shame that the rest of the world don’t have norks and so don’t know what we’re talking about.

    Like

  40. Spawny Get says:

    “nob on the end of a Nork”

    aka ‘nipple’…innocent of that too, were you? yer ‘avin a giraffe mate

    Like

  41. Spawny Get says:

    Links page Unfocused ; Browsers, STEM, Prison for ebul wimminz and some jokes”
    was probably the discussion you were remembering. The one with the eye-hurty image on the front page
    narcedyet

    Like

  42. Spawny Get says:

    It actually is so bad that it has a 3d effect…remarkabubble

    Like

  43. Spawny Get says:

    no plausible comment, you mean 😉

    Like

  44. Moehau Man says:

    Yes well as I say, the nipple nob is what you hold onto in bed if there’s an earthquake. There’s no mystery about, I mean it’s as plain as the nose on your face.

    Like

  45. Moehau Man says:

    Well in fact, any natural disaster, any act of god, and we hang onto the nob like grim death. It’s only natural.

    Like

  46. Spawny Get says:

    And this is what they’re doing next now.
    http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2014/11/10/the-sjws-now-get-to-police-speech-on-twitter/
    “Well, you could see this coming. Twitter announced last Thursday that it was teaming up with a left-feminist activist group to investigate gender-based harassment on the social networking site:”

    They twit-banned Milo temporarily already – they just cannot help themselves.

    “Mutually beneficial? Does she [man-jaw marcotte] mean that WAM can get to advance their broader ideas about policing the speech of white straight males by this legitimizing alliance with Twitter?

    Somehow, I suspect the culture wars online just got a little more frayed. Because Twitter has empowered leftist feminists to have a censorship field day.”

    Like

  47. Spawny Get says:

    Which is curious because Twitter is potentially voluntarily signing its own death warrant as a business. They’d better reverse this stupidity right quick or #GamerGate is likely to turn against twat-corp. You incite techies over a tech issue…#thatsadumbthingtodo

    Like

  48. Cill says:

    F*ck Twatter. F*ck Mozilla. Who’s next, Google?

    The criminalization of criticism of feminism wouldn’t be on the EU drawing books unless it were a knife aimed at the throat of liberty. I never could understand why it didn’t give rise to mass protest in the streets. In his inability to protect himself against women, Man is a Fool.

    Free men will not be gagged like this. I see the dark internet coming up for men.

    Like

  49. Spawny Get says:

    It’s actually about immigration depressing wages to the point that the locals won’t do the work for the money. Without immigrants working cheap, living 12+ to a house, what wages would they have to offer? mass immigration distorts everything. ~240,000 NETT immigration last year into a country of 65million – we’re frigging full.

    But it’s funny anyway, so (experiment, bear with me)

    Nick Krauser tweets
    “The bitter fruits of feminism”
    sarnie

    Like

  50. Cill says:

    “It’s actually about immigration”
    I don’t follow you there, Spawny.

    Like

  51. Spawny Get says:

    They can’t recruit local people for the wages that they’re offering. The local people either are too lazy, or just can’t afford to work for those wages. So they’re going to import eastern European workers and the taxpayer accepts worse services and higher costs for services so that employers can pay shite wages.

    That newspaper is just doing the usual we have to import cheap labour. Well no, not necessarily, what about you pay a living wage? Instead of minimum wages and let the taxpayer make up the difference.

    I get that people living off benefits without any intention to work pisses taxpayers off, but there’s also the question of why should a guy living in his own country (maybe has a wife’n’kidz) have to compete on wages with people willing to live 12+ in a small house (who also leaches off the taxpayer). Coming to a country for a couple of years and living in shite accomodation is one thing (done that), being a local knowing that this is all you’ll ever get paid for life because of those immigrants is another.

    Like

  52. Yoda says:

    Twitter announced last Thursday that it was teaming up with a left-feminist activist group to investigate gender-based harassment on the social networking site

    Objective standard they have not.
    “Does this butthurt you”, they ask.
    This picture wrong it is.

    Like

  53. Spawny Get says:

    regarding Twitter
    http://voxday.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/cultural-war-on-twitter.html

    Vox Day ‏@voxday
    #GamerGate “Saying things on Twitter both feels futile and dangerous” – SJW. They are openly afraid of public ridicule now. Show no mercy.
    28 retweets 33 favorites

    Average Joe ‏@ridinjustice
    @voxday are you really saying to publicly ridicule SJW without mercy??

    Vox Day ‏@voxday
    @ridinjustice Until we can apply for hunting licenses, yes, that will have to do.

    other posts are available.

    Like

  54. Spawny Get says:

    And that’s why I read Vox Day’s blog.

    I love the smell of burning amygdala in the morning, it smells like victory.

    Like

  55. FuzzieWuzzie says:

    Spawny Get,
    I followed your link to The Dish and saw their linked video. The gobbledygook coming out of those women’s mouths in order to justify censorship was disgraceful. I am not sure of how to combat this.
    There is one thing. Didn’t WAM! seek to control Facebook summer before last? While it was happening, there was a lot of noise. Now, not so much.

    Like

  56. Spawny Get says:

    Fuzzie, you may be right, I don’t facebook. I only recently took up twitter in order to follow GamerGate

    From Vox’s http://voxday.blogspot.co.uk/2014/11/never-rely-on-moderate.html comments

    “Would Ecco the Dolphin have been a better game if they hired a cetacean onto the development team?”

    I hear Lena will have some free time on her hands soon.

    So funny, some of the comments.

    Like

  57. Farm Boy says:

    “Would Ecco the Dolphin have been a better game if they hired a cetacean onto the development team?”

    I was so disappointed when I saw in the credits of the “Goat Simulator” that I bought not a single goat.

    Like

  58. Cill says:

    The chap with the phone to his ear looks like you, Spawny

    Like

  59. Cill says:

    Dead ringer

    Like

  60. Cill says:

    He has a certain skulking, apprehensive look.

    Like

  61. Spawny Get says:

    The phone guy is me.

    The guy on the right in the coppering photo is the narrator from Pushing Daisies.

    Cill is the left guy in the blue jumpsuit, Moe is the one on the right

    Like

  62. Cill says:

    Spawny, not even a lol for my 11 November, 2014 at 8:11 pm? (you know how you’re forever requesting accolades, now it’s my turn)

    Like

  63. FuzzieWuzzie says:

    Twitter is causing Judgybitch all sorts of problems. She says she has a plan. I offered a suggestion that i doubt she’ll take.

    http://judgybitch.com/2014/11/11/keep-an-eye-on-twitter-this-isnt-over-by-a-long-shot/

    Like

  64. theasdgamer says:

    Norks. Now I have a rhyme for “forks”. Squeezin da norks leads to forks.

    Bother Camerthong.

    Like

  65. Spawny Get says:

    Hi Gamer, I just updated the post.

    Glad you liked the Norks.

    Like

  66. Cill says:

    “Call me Dave” was one promise that Call-me-Dave made and kept, because he’s calling himself. That’s a fact, as sure as the bubble in your spirit level is a shark-fart.

    Now Ed Milli-bland, he, he is the reason why sharks have gone all anti-flatulent on us, and are buying up fart trousers (a type of legless incontinence trouser for sharks). Good-o, bro. Tighter than a trout’s.

    Like

  67. theasdgamer says:

    @ Spawny

    Back from our trip abroad to see the folks. Not much jet lag. Ziplined for the first time–about 1K ft. long.

    Speaking of norks…I was dancing last night at the studio with the pretty, petite blonde pro dancer (pole, maybe?) and she kept rubbing her large tracts of land against me–I lost count how many times. She was showing lots of cleavage (inappropriate for the dance lesson at the venue). I speculate that plastic surgery was involved. One of my dance partners said that the pro dancer was perfect. I demurred, seeing the crows feet. The pro has two kids and I’d guess is mid-to-late 30’s. Newly divorced.

    She turned sideways and knocked five people over. 38″ D cups?

    Like

  68. Spawny Get says:

    38D? Sounds dangerous in cold weather, Gamer. Nipples like Scammel wheel nuts…she could have someone’s eye out if she turns round too quickly. I agree regarding age and kids ; No such thing as a perfect 10 in her mid-late thirties.

    1000′ zip line sounds fun

    Like

  69. theasdgamer says:

    She’s a solid 9, but I hate her affected “Marilyn Monroe” voice. She’s short, so bystanders’ eyes aren’t in danger. Very perky, smiley, and tries hard to follow. Ultra-feminine.

    Like

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