Not really news about the Rochester predicted victory for the ‘kippers. I have mentioned this a few times in comments, but the day of voting approaches so I thought I’d add a post for suitable comments and news as it occurs. It seems that the local Tories have got so desperate about the upcoming defeat that they have started some negative campaigning about the guy that used to be the local Tory MP (their own guy just a few months ago). This might sound odd to some colonial types, but we don’t do that kind of campaigning very often. The ‘Demon eyes’ campaign against Bliar backfired on the tories. With complaints to the ASA (Advertising Standards Authority). Ironic now that many would like to see the guy on trial for war crimes for lying us into a war in Iraq. Reckless is more popular with the same electorate as a ‘kipper than he was as a tory. Labour’s vote has sunk despite them holding the seat (slightly changed boundaries) not very long ago. Check out this page for a laugh. Labour activist predicts labour victory in Rochester only six weeks ago. Current odds are here. Using the bet365 numbers we have:
- Ukip 1/33 (so a dead cert)
- Tories 11/1
- Labour 66/1
All this about a by-election that Dave Cameron said was different from Clacton
But Rochester (Tory majority 10,000) is different. Cameron has raised the stakes spectacularly publicly and privately by insisting that he will personally lead the charge against “fat arse” Mark Reckless who has followed his friend Carswell and switched to Ukip.
To lose one by-election may be regarded as a misfortune; to lose two looks like carelessness
h/t Oscar Wilde
Perhaps concerned that things aren’t looking bad enough for them, yesterday the tory Home Secretary (Teresa ‘I wanna be the next leader’ May) manages to make a complete balls up of a vote over the European Arrest Warrant. Using slimy tactics to deny our Parliament a vote on a fundamental aspect of how out justice system is going to be run. A vote that the tories would have won anyway because labour would have voted with the tories. In order to avoid a vote that would have shown a large number of tory mps revolting, but would have been won. She managed to look slippery and dishonest.
The Speaker, John Bercow, suggested the government’s attempts to avoid a vote on the issue – and therefore a backbench rebellion – would be regarded by the public as contemptuous, while Tory MPs called the decision underhand and tyrannical. Labour then called a vote on whether the entire debate should be abandoned, which provoked panic among Tory whips. Senior Tories, including David Cameron, were forced to rush back from the Lord Mayor’s dinner wearing white tie, while supportive backbenchers engaged in a US-style filibuster in the Commons to ensure the government was not defeated. After narrowly winning that vote, the government won the overall motion in favour of the EU justice and home affairs measures with only 36 MPs rebelling. But there are now likely to be recriminations within the Conservatives about how home secretary Theresa May and chief whip Michael Gove allowed such confusion and panic over what was only ever likely to be a minor backbench rebellion. http://www.theguardian.com/law/2014/nov/10/european-arrest-warrest-u-turn-vote-commons-chaos
rub salt in the wound help their best-est tory buddies, the labour party has decided to allow a full debate on the issue next week on their time…the day before the Rochester by-election. Even while regarding them as opportunistic canutes, I can’t help laughing. Scumbag politics all around, just what was needed to highlight the issue with the disconnected political class. And another link from the right wing (INO) press, The Telegraph – Labour to trigger new vote on European Arrest Warrant as fallout from chaotic Commons debate deepens And again The Telegraph – A Commons shambles that fuels public distrust
All of this fuels UKIP’s being seen as a viable protest vote. The effect of this? Well, BOTH main parties are regarded as less likely to form a majority government in May 2015
Another hung parliament is looking even more likely The two charts above represent betting developments that have never happened before. Both the chances of a CON and a LAB majority at GE15 on the betting exchange have moved to new lows together. This is a odd phenomenon. Normally if the blues collapse then the reds soar and vice versa. Now, with less than six months to go, both appear to have deep problems which will make it harder to put up convincing cases to the electorate next May. With LAB it’s the continued angst about the leadership while amongst the Tories it is the opening up yet again of the European fault line that has been so corrosive for nearly a quarter of a century.
Interesting times ahead…
Don’t ask me which is which. Neither has any appeal.
Update. UKIP releases a video over the Tory truth telling over Europe
Another update. This guy identifies the issues that the political class has, but misses in his conclusions, I believe (the commentariat is with me)
The truth is that the motivations of Ukip voters exist in the blind spot of modern politics. No easy portrait of an average ‘Kipper’ can be drawn. It is the ability of the current mood to unite seemingly disparate groups in support of Ukip that has the established political class perplexed. No matter how many graphs, tables and polls are produced by policy wonks, no empirically verifiable link or connection will become apparent. No amount of ‘evidence-led policy’ will tell you what brings a retired lieutenant colonel in Wiltshire into the same political tent as a white, unemployed, single mother in Clacton. Without such a diagnosis, formulating a strategy to stop Nigel Farage is virtually impossible.
The professional political class’s blind spot is a methodological one. Since the mid-nineties, Westminster has refused to acknowledge the existence of any trend or occurrence that cannot be quantified or viewed through the quasi-scientific lens of professional politics. The result is a perspective as sterile and empty as the philosophical position that denies there is truth to be found in Shakespeare because such truth is not susceptible to objective measurement. Deploying this methodology in frontline politics produces a damaging reductionism. If a policy wonk is confronted with the fact that people are reporting their home town “no longer feels like home” or “feels like a foreign country”, these responses are immediately misread and pigeon-holed as concerns about ‘immigration’. Condemnation of such perceived attitudes usually follows.
What is missed is that such remarks often have very little to do with immigration or racism. To get this, we must accept that most people, most of the time, are good and decent. Ukip cannot run on xenophobia alone. Instead, such comments are better understood as a lament for a lost sense of belonging. It is this that unites the retired colonel with Clacton woman. Both come from social groups that began the 20th Century with the clearest sense of identity and standing in the social order. Both have now lost this. In these groups, community identity and social standards were unambiguous. Members of both groups could take pride in what they did and who they were; they were frequently the most engaged and active members of our nation and society.
I don’t agree with “better understood as a lament for a lost sense of belonging.”. I think it’s a realisation that things were better before. Now is worse. Things of value have been lost and nothing of great value won. Multi-culti does not work, it is not better than that which it replaced. And that is not a xenophobic statement, it’s the statement of a legitimate point of view. Lying about it (as the liblabcon does) or labelling it xenophobic (as the liblabcon does) is no longer working. UKIP’s progress shows that.
The comments are well worth reading, they draw the better conclusions than the original material.